Our real-time FLAG tracker recorded 1,345 PERM decisions in a single day on May 14 — the highest single-day count we have observed. The week of May 11-15 averaged 880 decisions per weekday. The same period in 2025 averaged 433.
Here is what the last two weeks look like day by day:
| Date | Day | Decisions |
|---|---|---|
| May 5 | Tue | 602 |
| May 6 | Wed | 719 |
| May 7 | Thu | 663 |
| May 8 | Fri | 790 |
| May 11 | Mon | 489 |
| May 12 | Tue | 619 |
| May 13 | Wed | 758 |
| May 14 | Thu | 1,345 |
| May 15 | Fri | 787 |
The Backlog by Filing Month
The 120,000 pending case headline is misleading. DOL processes cases in filing-date order, and when you look at it cohort by cohort, the picture is very different:
| Filing month | Decided | Pending | % Done |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2024 | 8,044 | 4 | 100% |
| Aug 2024 | 11,409 | 153 | 99% |
| Sep 2024 | 11,216 | 171 | 98% |
| Oct 2024 | 11,837 | 237 | 98% |
| Nov 2024 | 9,611 | 122 | 99% |
| Dec 2024 | 9,808 | 285 | 97% |
| Jan 2025 | 6,039 | 273 | 96% |
| Feb 2025 | 5,076 | 975 | 84% |
| Mar 2025 | 1,293 | 5,179 | 20% (active frontier) |
| Apr 2025 | 279 | 7,275 | 4% |
| May 2025 onward | under 3% each |
Every 2024 cohort is 97-100% cleared. January 2025 is at 96%. February is at 84% and falling fast. March 2025 is where DOL is working right now. At the current pace, March should be largely done within weeks, with April starting to receive decisions 1-2 weeks after that.
The 2025-2026 cohorts at 1-4% are not stuck. They simply have not entered DOL's active review window yet.
How Long Did Each Month Take to Clear?
Our tracker started monitoring live status transitions in mid-April 2026. Here is how fast DOL has been moving through each cohort since then:
| Filing month | Cases cleared | Calendar days |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 2024 | 7,196 | 36 days |
| Jan 2025 | 5,733 | 28 days |
| Feb 2025 | 4,847 | 17 days |
| Mar 2025 | 1,072+ | 7 days and counting |
Each month is clearing faster than the one before it. December took 36 days. January took 28. February took 17. March started on May 11 and is already well underway. This is not a plateau; DOL is accelerating through each successive cohort.
Could This Be a Spike?
It is worth flagging one honest caveat before reading too much into the peak numbers.
DOL does not post decisions to the FLAG system the moment they are made. There is typically a delay between internal review and when the status update appears publicly. A single day showing 1,345 decisions may partly reflect a batch of decisions made over several preceding days, all posted at once. The Monday lows followed by high mid-week counts are consistent with this pattern.
The next 2-4 weeks will be the real test. If weekly totals stay above 3,500-4,000 decisions, that confirms a new sustained capacity. If they drop back to 2,000-2,500, the recent surge was a catchup event. We will update this article as the data comes in. You can follow the daily counts in real time at permtrack.app/watchlist.
The One Complication: Denial Rates Are Rising
Throughput is up and the active backlog is shrinking. But denial rates have moved in the opposite direction.
| Period | Denial rate |
|---|---|
| FY2025 full year (OFLC) | 1.8% |
| FY2026 Q1, Oct-Dec 2025 (OFLC) | 3.4% |
| May 2026 decisions (FLAG tracker) | 5.7% |
FY2025 appears to have been a historically low-scrutiny period. The current environment is closer to the FY2024 level of 4.4%, and trending higher. Faster processing is good for your timeline. The higher denial rate is a reason to make sure your file is solid before it reaches the front of the queue.
What This Means for Your Case
Filed Jul 2024 through Feb 2025: Your cohort is nearly fully processed. The remaining cases in those months are likely complex files involving RFIs, appeals, or audits.
Filed Mar 2025: Decisions are happening in your cohort now. Check your FLAG status.
Filed Apr 2025: At the current pace, your cohort could start seeing decisions within 1-2 weeks.
Filed May 2025 or later: You are in the queue. At this pace, months are clearing roughly every 2-3 weeks, so your wait is shorter than the raw pending count suggests.
Data: OFLC PERM quarterly disclosures (FY2024-FY2026 Q1, 279,666 cases) and the PERM Tracker real-time FLAG scraper monitoring 120,000+ pending cases. Daily decision counts reflect FLAG system updates, which may lag actual DOL processing by 1-2 days. Track your case at permtrack.app/watchlist.